Tournament Strategy: Fold Equity
I play the majority of the time at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, CT. Foxwoods is home to the WPT's World Poker Room and some of the best cash games on the east coast. Foxwoods is also a mecca for daily tournament poker. Tournaments are run six days a week, three tournaments per day. These tournaments have fast structures and are designed to run from start to finish in about eight hours. For your "nine to fivers" or for people that have responsibilities and schedules outside the casino, this type of structure works just fine. For the rest of us who have more time on our hands and are looking to get some play for our money, the consensus normally is that these types of tournaments are more like glorified crap shoots than anything else.
I both agree and disagree with this mindset. While we don't get to play tournament poker in it's purist form, there is still a way to be successful within this format. I believe that it is important, maybe now more than ever, to understand these strategies as these types of tournaments are becoming more popular every day. In addition to your local casino(s), you can now find them popping up in bars, private clubs, small poker rooms all of whom are trying to capitalize on the popularity of this phenomenal game.
One major way to succeed is to have a clear understanding of what the average chip stack is and how that equates to the blinds. It is not uncommon for average chip stacks to be less than 10 bets. Keep one thing in mind: if you have the average chip stack than it will always be the average chip stack before it is a short stack. And, while you may feel like your stack has no breathing room because of the actual size of the blinds and antes, it is crucial not to panic because guess what? 95% of the remaining players are in the same situation! The biggest mistake I see in these fast structured tournaments are players who have an average chip stack, yet decide to gamble for their tournament life on a less than favorable situation.
This "unfavorable gamble" brings us to the concept of Fold Equity.
There are normally two common reasons why we call all-in in pre-flop situations
1. We pick up a monster (AA, KK, QQ etc.)
2. We have a lot of chips and therefore can afford to make a marginal call if we are getting the correct pot-odds
Option one is generally unavoidable. Option two, on the other hand, deals with the concept of Fold Equity.
Fold Equity- is a concept in poker strategy that is especially important when a player becomes short-stacked in a no-limit tournament. It is equity a player can consider him or herself likely to gain if he or she bets.
It equates to:
Gain in equity if opponent(s) fold x likelihood that opponents fold
The first half of the equation is known because it is whatever share of equity the folding opponent has. The second cannot be known but must be estimated based on reads or previous actions.
Example:
Johnny holds A6. He is heads up with Eddie, who holds 22. The flop is 973 rainbow (no cards of the same suit).
Johnny has pot equity of 31.5%
Eddie has pot equity of 68.5%
- In other words, if there was no further betting, and the players simply turned up their hands and were dealt the turn and river, johnny is 31.5% likely to win.
- If Eddie is 70% likely to fold, Johnny's fold equity is 47.95% (68.5 x .7). Consequently, Johnny can consider that his hand equity if he bets will equal 31.5 + 47.95%, almost 80%.
While this concept may be hard to grasp at first, the basic strategy is pretty simple. Before you move your stack in on an opponent with a marginal hand, use the following mental check list to decide whether or not it is a correct time to do so.
Does this player(s) have the ability to make a lay-down
How much is my raise vs. How much my opponent has invested in the pot (If your opponent is calling less than 2.5-3 times what he has invested than it is not correct to move all-in here)
How many chips does my opponent have (If he/she has more than 5 times the total of the bet it is not correct to move all-in here)
How educated is my opponent on this concept? (A better player will be able to pick this off)
If, after running through this list, the signs point to shove...than you need to shove my friend!!!
Remember, the key to going to the final table on a consistent basis is not picking up big hands at big moments, it's winning important pots at important moments.
When you hear someone say that player X plays a short stack well, what that means is they understand the concept of Fold Equity. Hopefully now you do too!
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Hope you enjoyed this throwback blog entry.
John"TrupQQ" Sep
